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To minimize this data processing artifact, boundaries between months were smoothed while keeping the sum of daily streamflows equal to the original monthly values in the final product. The approach and methods are more fully described in the study report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 3) and also by Elsner et al. Columbia River Basin Basin Overview . The Assessment will result in a better understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the eight components identified in SECURE in the Columbia River Basin. The interested reader is directed to the CBCCSP report (Hamlet, Carrasco, et al., Citation2010a, Chapter 6) for a detailed discussion of methods and results. A flight of geese circle over Moses Lake Saturday morning. If neither naturalized nor modified flow is available, no bias-adjusted data were provided. Columbia River | Location, Length, History, & Facts | Britannica Thanks to Shrad Shukla, at the UW for 1/16 degree VIC model calibration over the Yakima basin. The magnitude of flooding the term used to describe flooding severity is expected to increase throughout the basin, which includes the Columbia, Willamette and Snake rivers . Although this project consists of an abbreviated set of scenarios and products using three scenarios (high, medium, and low impact) for one downscaling method, the CBCCSP played an important role in providing an established set of methods for developing historical driving datasets and implementing and running the hydrologic models. The study was also unique in that this was the first time that these agencies had run their own reservoir operation models to assess climate change impacts in the CRB, an element of the study design which greatly increased the impact of the study conclusions in the agencies involved. Columbia Basin Dive Rescue has been serving the community for almost 50 years. Exploring a Large Ensemble of Simulations Across a Diversity of Hydroclimates. Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain. Snover, A. K., Hamlet, A. F., Lee, S.-Y., Mantua, N. J., Salath, E. P. Jr, Steed, R., & Tohver, I. The Columbia Basin Climate Source is your one-stop destination for information about climate change, impacts, and action in this region. Report of A.G. Crook Company to Bonneville Power Administration, Portland, OR. About 15 sites in western Washington, outside the CRB, were also included in support of the 2009 WACCIA. Recommended articles lists articles that we recommend and is powered by our AI driven recommendation engine. The Columbia River is the fourth largest river in North America and the largest river in the Pacific Northwest. The VIC model (version 4.0.7) was implemented at 1/16 degree resolution, with three active soil layers and up to five elevation bands with an approximate spacing of 500m. The model was run in water balance mode with a snow model time step of 1h and a water balance time step of 24h. The model was coupled to a simple daily-time-step routing model (Lohmann, Raschke, Nijssen, & Lettenmaier, Citation1998), which was used to produce daily flow estimates at each of the approximately 300 streamflow locations included in the study. As mentioned in the introduction, WA HB2860, which provided the bulk of the funding for the CBCCSP, also charged WDOE with identifying where US$200 million earmarked for water resources infrastructure improvements should be spent. An overview of the Columbia Basin Climate Change Scenarios Project: Approach, methods, and summary of key results. Open File Report SW 02-002. These extended meteorological data have proved particularly useful in supporting ecological studies (e.g., Littell et al., Citation2010). Each of these methods has its specific advantages and limitations (as discussed in detail in Hamlet et al., 2010a); however, the HD method combines several important strengths of the CD and BCSD methods and was developed specifically to support the prediction of daily hydrologic extremes (Hamlet et al., 2010a). Contact Carri Hessman Program Manager (208) 378-5106 chessman@usbr.gov Bureau of Reclamation Based on these substantial differences in hydrologic impacts it is difficult to escape the conclusion that management of water resources in the Canadian portions of the basin will play a crucial role in the ability of US water managers to adapt to more substantial changes in streamflow timing and summer low flows in the United States. Special thanks also to Dennis P. Lettenmaier, head of the Land Surface Hydrology Group at the UW, for providing access to computer resources and system administration support for the CBCCSP. By late 21st century, annual precipitation increases by 5% (8%), with an 8% (14%) winter increase and a 4% (10%) summer decrease, but because . Gridded datasets provide full spatial coverage (i.e., all grid cells in the model domain) at monthly time scales, of the key hydroclimatic variables listed in Table 2. Columbia Basin Care Salem, Oregon. Dark red lines show the average of the climate change ensemble. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850). Additional streamflow sites were routed from the primary VIC data, and water temperature simulations for a number of additional sites were based on temperature projections from the study. Temperature and precipitation vary greatly with elevation, but in the central basin January average daily temperatures are between about 25 and 30 F (4 and 1 C), and July averages are mostly between 70 and 75 F (21 and 24 C). Flooding in the Columbia River basin expected to increase under climate change Date: February 10, 2021 Source: Oregon State University Summary: The Columbia River basin will see an increase. Site specific data [Data]. The two time periods also represent very different patterns of decadal climate variability in the historical record, providing a useful test in the context of simulating a changing climate. A 20 percent chance of rain showers in the evening. The primary activities and objectives of the RMJOC studies are described in the Executive Summary of the project report (US Department of the Interior, Citation2012): The Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) collaborated to adopt climate change and hydrology datasets for their longer-term planning activities in the ColumbiaSnake River Basin (CSRB). Those who wish to do additional post-processing of the existing VIC data can access the archived model output. Detailed forecast for Upper Columbia Basin Tonight Mostly clear. Detailed water balance summaries and streamflow data for up to 300 river locations to be specified by WDOE and other stakeholders in the region. Hamlet, and S.-Y. These results support the hypothesis that widespread increases in winter landslide risks and sediment transport in rivers are likely to accompany increased winter precipitation and loss of interannual snowpack in mountain watersheds. About 10 locations show negative NSE scores, which usually occurs when the simulations are strongly biased in comparison with observations. Both calibration and validation periods were chosen to test model performance over a wide range of climate and streamflow conditions. Elsner MM, et al. Mostly cloudy, with a high . Blue lines show average historical values (19162006) (repeated in each panel). Source: Bonneville Power Administration. Thus, depending on their needs and level of technical sophistication, stakeholders can make the best use of the study products by extracting information at different points in the data processing sequence, all of which are available on the study web site. A comprehensive assessment of hydrologic extremes such as Q100 and 7Q10. Climate Change Challenge In The Columbia River Basin: Managing Water 8) and warmer and drier summers (which increase PET) (Fig. Warming of the global climate is unequivocal. The authors would like to acknowledge the contributions of two anonymous reviewers and the lead and associate editors for Atmosphere-Ocean, whose constructive suggestions substantially improved the paper during the review process. #! O 8). The study has constructed a state-of-the-art, end-to-end data processing sequence from raw climate model output to a suite of hydrologic modelling products that are served to the user community from a web-accessible database. The CBCCSP was founded on the basis of regional partnerships to support a shared need for climate change scenarios and directly encompassed the transboundary nature of the CRB's management framework by including both US and Canadian interests in an integrated and comprehensive data resource. Zone Area Forecast for Lower Columbia Basin of Washington Those who lack their own hydrologic model, but wish to make additional runs themselves, can obtain the calibrated VIC model implementation. hb```"V* aB@{= ,!It#GjWeyP1% These include the full meteorological forcings for the model (variables 18), a suite of water balance variables simulated by the model (variables 916), and five different PET metrics (variables 1721) (Elsner et al., Citation2010). People also read lists articles that other readers of this article have read. Results from the study show profound changes in spring snowpack and fundamental shifts from snow and mixed-rain-and-snow to rain-dominant behaviour across most of the domain. Elsner et al. This web site provides streamflow information for the Columbia River and coastal drainages in Washington and Oregon State for the 21st century based on a large number of climate scenarios and model experiments. The process was also significantly improved by researchers at PCIC who reconfigured and optimized the code to run more efficiently on a Linux cluster (Schnorbus, Bennett, Werner, & Berland, Citation2011). In other words, although at these sites the model results do not match the observations in the absolute sense (large bias), the relative changes follow the observed variations quite well (high R 2). Size, however, is only one aspect of what makes the river particularly unique. (, Washington State Department of Community Trade and Economic Development, Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model, A Monte Carlo hydropower and water resources simulation model developed by the NWPCC, Hybrid Delta statistical downscaling method, HYDropower SIMulation, a hydropower and water resources simulation model used by the BPA in the CRB, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.